Emerging zoonotic diseases in wildlife: metapopulation models with multiple
pathogens and multiple hosts
Dr. Linda Allen
Department of Mathematics
Texas Tech University
Abstract
Spatial heterogeneity, host demography, multiple hosts and multiple
pathogens have had an impact on the emergence, persistence and
extinction of diseases in wildlife. Natural or human-made landscape
features such as forests, rivers, roads, and crops have resulted in
patchy habitats. Pathogens are often capable of infecting multiple
hosts, and in addition, many of these pathogens can also be
transmitted by multiple hosts. Approximately sixty percent of human
pathogens are zoonotic causing diseases such as Lyme disease,
influenza, sleeping sickness, rabies, and hantavirus pulmonary
syndrome. These multiple hosts provide many avenues for the disease to
emerge. We investigate the effects of disease emergence and
persistence in mathematical models that include multiple patches,
multiple hosts, or multiple pathogens. The basic reproduction number
is computed for these models. In the case of multiple hosts, the
basic reproduction number is shown to increase with the number of
hosts that can be infected. For multiple patches, the basic
reproduction number can be computed in special cases and is bounded
below and above by the minimum and maximum patch reproduction
numbers, respectively. For multiple pathogens, a reproduction number
can be computed for each of the pathogens. It is shown that
competitive dominance by a single pathogen or coexistence of multiple
pathogens may occur. The results are illustrated by numerical
examples. Implications for disease control are discussed.